Title Značaj strane štednje za gospodarski rast zemlje primateljice Title (english) The importance of foreign savings for the economic growth of the recipient country Author Mirna Miličić Mentor Mario Pečarić (mentor)Committee member Mario Pečarić (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Helena Blažić (član povjerenstva)Committee member Pavle Jakovac (član povjerenstva)Granter University of Rijeka Defense date and country 2019-09-30, Croatia Scientific / art field, SOCIAL SCIENCES Abstract Veliki broj ekonomista zalagao se za otvaranje zemalja stranom kapitalu oslanjajući se na uobičajene neoklasične argumente o alokativnoj efikasnosti kapitala. No, dosta je autora i preispitalo tu tezu oslanjajući se na slab utjecaj ili čak negativan stranog kapitala na rast. Čak empirijska istraživanja ne daju jednoznačan odgovor o učincima priljeva kapitala, ističući sve češće u okviru heterodoksne ekonomske teorije negativne učinke istog. Pitanje je što je uzrok potencijalnom i stvarnom negativnom učinku stranog kapitala na rast? U literaturi možemo naići na analizu različitih determinanti. U radu se analizira neoklasična teorija koja zastupa otvaranje stranom kapitalu i drži da su blagi deficit tekuće bilance plaćanja i aprecirana valuta zapravo ne trebaju biti zabrinjavajući za zemlju u razvoju. Analizira se i mišljenje da zemlja u razvoju ne bilježi pozitivne učinke priljeva stranog kapitala, što zbog nedovoljne financijske i institucionalne razvijenosti, što zbog visokog stupnja supstitucije strane za domaću štednju. U radu je analiziran niz radova čiji rezultati potkrepljuju različite determinante negativnog učinka priljeva kapitala na gospodarski rast.
Zaključak rada dovodi do prihvaćanja temljene hipoteze samoga rada, a to je da strani kapital ne dovodi automatski do pozitivnog utjecaja na rast zemalja zahvaljujući aprecijacijskim pritiscima na domaću valutu. Kada dođe do velikog priljeva deviza u zemlju, valuta zemlje primateljice jača. Aprecijacija valute stimulira uvoz, a destimulira izvoz. Takvo stanje može zemlju dovesti do deindustrijalizacije jer je jeftinije uvoziti nego izvoziti dobra. Također, većina zemalja, poput Hrvatske, priljev stranog kapitala u zemlju ne iskorištava za izgradnju zemlje. U Hrvatskoj su inozemno zaduživanje i krediti domaćih banaka tek u manjoj mjeri bili usmjereni u izvozne proizvodne sektore, a većim dijelom u kredite stanovništvu, uvoznicima i sektor nekretnina. Sukladno tome, Hrvatsku karakterizira postojanje nizozemske bolesti koja se očituje u dva sektora: turizmu i nekretninama. Zbog priljeva deviza tokom turističke sezone, dolazi do aprecijacije valute i njezinih štetnih učinaka. Navedeno je detaljnije razloženo u ovome radu.
Abstract (english) Many authors have advocated in favor of opening the country to foreign capital. They thought it was a good thing to do for a developing country. If we take a look at empirical evidence of the benefits of capital inflows, we cannot find a lot evidence to support this claim. The question is: “Why the neoclassical theory of opening capital flows did not produce the expected results of economic growth?” The answer lies in the existence of foreign exchange risks in developing countries, as well as political risks, the lack of trained and educated workforce, and the cost of trading and intrinsic problems of a developing country.
The paper explains the neoclassical theory that represents opening to foreign capital. The opinion is that the developing country does not record the positive effects of foreign capital inflows. This can happen due to insufficient financial and institutional development as well as due to the high ratee of foreign substitution for domestic savings. Moreover, this paper also presents a number of practical examples on which the theory previously explained had been tested.
In the conclusion of this paper, I acceptance the hypotheses of this paper which is that foreign capital, (foreign savings), does not automatically lead to a positive impact on the growth of countries due to the appreciation pressures on the domestic currency. When there is a large inflow of foreign currency, the currency strengthens. Currency appreciation stimulates imports, while discourages exports. This situation can lead to the deindustrialisation of the country because it is cheaper to import than to export goods. Also, most countries, such as Croatia, do not use the inflow of foreign capital into the country to build the country. In Croatia, foreign capital was only directed to the export manufacturing sectors and, to a large extent, in loans to households, importers and the real estate sector. Accordingly, Croatia is characterized by the existence of a Dutch disease, manifested in two sectors: tourism and real estate. Due to the inflow of foreign currency during the tourist season, currency appreciation and its effects occur. The above is discussed in more detail in this paper.
Keywords
priljev kapitala
gospodarski rast
institucionalne determinante
realni tečaj
Keywords (english)
capital inflow
economic growth
institutional determinants
real exchange rate
Language croatian URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:192:404807 Study programme Title: Business Economics; specializations in: Finance and Banking, Entrepreneurship, Management, Finance and Accounting, Marketing, International Business, IT Business Type of resource Text File origin Born digital Access conditions Access restricted to students and staff of home institution Terms of use Created on 2020-01-16 18:09:31
