Title Doprinos turizma ekonomskoj otpornosti država članica Europske Unije
Title (english) The contribution of tourism to the economic resilience of European Union member states
Author Nikola Peraić
Mentor Lidija Petrić (mentor)
Committee member Lidija Petrić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Blanka Šimundić (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Vinko Muštra (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Split Faculty of economics Split Split
Defense date and country 2024-09-17, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics Trade and Tourism
Abstract Ovaj rad istražuje ulogu turizma u jačanju ekonomske otpornosti država članica Europske unije (EU)
tijekom i nakon kriznih razdoblja, s fokusom na financijsku krizu iz 2008. godine i pandemiju COVID-19. S
obzirom na specifičnosti turističkog sektora i njegovu osjetljivost na vanjske šokove, istraživanje se
usredotočuje na analizu doprinosa turizma oporavku gospodarstava EU te identificira ključne čimbenike
koji utječu na ekonomski rast tijekom kriznih situacija. Razdoblje obuhvaćeno analizom proteže se od 2007.
do 2019. godine, tijekom kojeg su se analizirali utjecaji turizma na BDP po stanovniku u državama
članicama. Istraživanje koristi dinamičku panel analizu i metodologiju modela s fiksnim i slučajnim efektima
kako bi ispitalo postoje li značajne razlike u doprinosu turizma ekonomskoj otpornosti između starijih i
novijih članica EU-a.
Empirijski dio rada fokusiran je na testiranje dviju hipoteza. Prva hipoteza (H1) ispituje povezanost između
rasta turističkih dolazaka po stanovniku i rasta BDP-a po stanovniku u državama članicama EU. Rezultati
analize potvrđuju postojanje pozitivne i statistički značajne veze između ovih varijabli (r = 0,288; P<0,001).
Ovaj nalaz sugerira da turizam može igrati ključnu ulogu u ekonomskoj obnovi nakon kriznih razdoblja,
generirajući prihode, stvarajući radna mjesta i potičući investicije u lokalnim zajednicama. Turizam se stoga
identificira kao važan čimbenik ekonomske otpornosti, posebno za zemlje koje u velikoj mjeri ovise o
turizmu kao ekonomskoj djelatnosti. Druga hipoteza (H2) istražuje postojanje razlika u doprinosu turizma
ekonomskoj otpornosti s obzirom na vrijeme ulaska država u Europsku uniju. Iako su postojale određene
varijacije u dinamici oporavka između "starih" i "novih" članica EU, statistička analiza pokazuje da nema
značajne razlike koja bi se mogla pripisati vremenu ulaska u EU (Z test, P = 0,978). Stoga je ova hipoteza
odbijena, što implicira da doprinos turizma otpornosti i oporavku gospodarstva nije uvjetovan godinom
pristupanja EU.
Zaključci ovog istraživanja imaju značajne implikacije za oblikovanje politika i strategija za upravljanje
krizama u turističkom sektoru. Potvrđujući važnost turizma u poticanju gospodarskog oporavka, rezultati
ukazuju na potrebu jačanja otpornosti turizma kroz diversifikaciju, održivi razvoj i inovacije. Preporuča se
da EU i njezine članice uspostave koordinirane mjere i strategije kako bi se poboljšala sposobnost
prilagodbe turističkog sektora budućim krizama te kako bi se maksimizirao njegov doprinos ekonomskom
oporavku i otpornosti.
Abstract (english) This paper explores the role of tourism in enhancing the economic resilience of European Union (EU)
member states during and after crisis periods, focusing on the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19
pandemic. Given the specificities of the tourism sector and its sensitivity to external shocks, the research
focuses on analyzing the contribution of tourism to the recovery of EU economies and identifies key factors
influencing economic growth during crisis situations. The period covered by the analysis extends from
2007 to 2019, during which the impacts of tourism on GDP per capita in EU member states were analyzed.
The research employs dynamic panel analysis and fixed and random effects models to examine whether
there are significant differences in tourism's contribution to economic resilience between older and newer
EU member states.
The empirical part of the paper focuses on testing two hypotheses. The first hypothesis (H1) examines the
relationship between the growth of tourist arrivals per capita and GDP growth per capita in EU member
states. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of a positive and statistically significant relationship
between these variables (r = 0.288; P<0.001). This finding suggests that tourism can play a key role in
economic recovery after crisis periods by generating income, creating jobs, and encouraging investments
in local communities. Tourism is therefore identified as an important factor in economic resilience,
especially for countries that rely heavily on tourism as an economic activity. The second hypothesis (H2)
investigates the existence of differences in tourism's contribution to economic resilience based on the
time of a country’s accession to the European Union. Although there were some variations in the recovery
dynamics between the "old" and "new" EU members, the statistical analysis shows no significant
difference that could be attributed to the time of EU accession (Z test, P = 0.978). Therefore, this
hypothesis is rejected, suggesting that the contribution of tourism to resilience and economic recovery is
not conditioned by the year of joining the EU.
The conclusions of this research have significant implications for the formulation of policies and strategies
for crisis management in the tourism sector. By confirming the importance of tourism in stimulating
economic recovery, the results indicate the need to strengthen the resilience of tourism through
diversification, sustainable development, and innovation. It is recommended that the EU and its member
states establish coordinated measures and strategies to improve the adaptability of the tourism sector to
future crises and maximize its contribution to economic recovery and resilience.
Keywords
turizam
ekonomska otpornost
Europska unija
financijska kriza
pandemija COVID-19
Keywords (english)
tourism
economic resilience
European Union
financial crisis
COVID-19 pandemic
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:124:076752
Study programme Title: Tourism and Hotel Management Study programme type: university Study level: graduate Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije)
Type of resource Text
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
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Created on 2024-10-01 13:07:36