| Abstract | Suvremeno gospodarsko okruženje terminska tržišta poznaje kao jedan od najznačajnijih ekonomskih stupova te stupova cjelokupne međunarodne trgovine. Njihov značaj se osobito manifestira na pozitivan utjecaj na ekonomski i gospodarski, ali i politički, socijalni te kulturni razvoj suvremenog društva. Upravo zbog kontinuiranog razvoja njihova značaja tijekom vremena ustanovljene su brojne analize, metode i alati koji omogućuju predviđanja kretanja vrijednosti na terminskim tržištima, koja mogu poslužiti za donošenje odluka o ulasku ili izlasku s tržišta. U ovom radu provedena je tehnička analiza kretanja cijena na terminskom tržištu na primjeru paladija. Paladij je odabran zbog s kontinuiranog rasta njegove vrijednosti i široke primjenjivosti u suvremenom gospodarstvu, a poglavito u automobilskoj industriji i drugih značajnim industrijama. Cilj rada je objasniti, utvrditi i ustanoviti tehnički pristup ulaganjima kroz prikaz i objašnjenje indikatora koji se koriste u tehničkoj analizi na primjeru cijene paladija, kao što su MA, MACD linija, Bollingerove granice i RSI indeks. Za provedbu tehničke analize kretanja cijene paladija odabrana je dnevna, mjesečna i godišnja razina koje su pojedinačno analizirane te prikazane grafički i tekstualno interpretirane. Nakon provedbe tehničkih analiza za odabrana razdoblja pokazalo se da su Bollingerove granice najpouzdaniji indikator s najvećom razinom točnosti u predviđanju kretanja cijene paladija, dok su najmanje pouzdani indikatori RSI i MA. Jednako tako, pokazalo se da se razlike u predviđanjima očituju ovisno o tome da li je riječ o obratu cijene u rast ili u obratu cijene u pad te o razdoblju za koje se promatra. Autorica zaključuje da bi ulagači i trgovci na terminskim tržištima, kada je u pitanju ulaganje u paladij, trebali uzeti u obzir spoznaje o najvrjednijim, odnosno najpouzdanijim indikatorima tehničke analize, kao što to pokazuje ovo istraživanje. |
| Abstract (english) | The modern economic environment recognizes futures markets as one of the most important economic pillars and pillars of the entire international trade. Their importance is particularly manifested in the positive influence on the economic and economic, as well as political, social and cultural development of modern society. Precisely because of the continuous development of their importance over time, numerous analyses, methods and tools have been established that enable predictions of value movements on futures markets, which can be used to make decisions about entering or exiting the market. In this paper, a technical analysis of price movements on the futures market was carried out using the example of palladium. Palladium was chosen because of the continuous growth of its value and wide applicability in the modern economy, especially in the automotive industry and other important industries. The aim of the paper is to explain, determine and establish a technical approach to investments through the display and explanation of indicators used in technical analysis, for example the price of palladium, such as MA, MACD line, Bollinger limits and RSI index. To carry out technical analysis of palladium price movements, daily, monthly and annual levels were selected, which were individually analyzed and presented graphically and textually interpreted. After carrying out technical analysis for selected periods, it turned out that Bollinger limits are the most reliable indicator with the highest level of accuracy in predicting the movement of palladium price, while the least reliable indicators are RSI and MA. Equally, it was shown that the differences in the predictions are manifested depending on whether it is a reversal of the price to an increase or a reversal of the price to a decrease and the period for which it is observed. The author concludes that investors and traders in futures markets, when it comes to investing in palladium, should take into account knowledge about the most valuable, that is, the most reliable indicators of technical analysis, as this research shows. |
