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master's thesis
Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji
Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, 2015. urn:nbn:hr:148:716408
Kukor, Marita
University of Zagreb
Faculty of Economics and Business

Institutional repository: REPEFZG

Cite this document

Kukor, M. (2015). Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

Kukor, Marita. "Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, 2015. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

Kukor, Marita. "Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, 2015. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

Kukor, M. (2015). 'Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, accessed 24 December 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

Kukor M. Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business; 2015 [cited 2024 December 24] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

M. Kukor, "Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, 2015. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:716408

Metadata
TitleSpecifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji
Title (english)Specifics of business curveys of Europian Union in recession
AuthorMarita Kukor
MentorMirjana Čižmešija (mentor)
Committee memberAlka Obadić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberMarija Penava (član povjerenstva)
GranterUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Economics and Business
Zagreb
Defense date and country2015-09-22, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		SOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Abstract
Konjunkturni testovi su kvalitativna istraživanja čiji se rezultati određenim numeričkim postupcima transformiraju u pokazatelje. Pokazatelji konjunkturne klime koji su potvrđeni kao vodeći indikatori služe kao dopuna rezultatima službene statistike o kretanjima makroekonomskih varijabli te su redovito, mjesečno, kvartalno i/ili polugodišnje, dostupni širokom krugu korisnika. Kako pokazatelji konjunkture zauzimaju vrlo važno mjesto u kratkoročnim, ali i dugoročnim prognozama ekonomskih kretanja nacionalnog, regionalnog i svjetskog gospodarstva, posebno u razdoblju recesije, njihova pouzdanost i relevantnost u donošenju odluka nositelja politike je ispitana primjenom statističkih modela. U tu svrhu promatrana je međusobna povezanost i ovisnost varijabli promjene pokazatelja pouzdanja konjunkturne klime u industriji i stope promjene industrijske proizvodnje primjenom modela korelacijske i regresijske analize, a uspješnost prognoziranja smjera promjene analizirane pojave temeljem konfuzijskog omjera. Zaključivanje da se temeljem smjera promjene pokazatelja konjunkturne klime u industriji može uspješno predvidjeti smjer promjene obujma industrijske proizvodnje i to 7 mjeseci unaprijed, izvedeno je na temelju rezultata χ2 - testa o nezavisnosti obilježja.
Abstract (english)
Business and Consumer Surveys are qualitative surveys of which results are transformed into indicators with certain numerical procedures. Indicators, confirmed as the leading indicators, are used to supplement the results of official statistics on trends in macroeconomic variables and are available to a wide range of users monthly, quarterly and/or semi-annually. As the indicators of economic activity, they have a very important role in the short term, but also long-term forecasts of national, regional and world economic trends, especially in the recession period. Their reliability and relevance in decision-making are examined using statistical models. For this purpose, the interconnection and dependence of Industrial Confidence Indicator and industrial production change have been observed, based on the correlation and regression analysis. The success of forecasting the direction of change of analyzed phenomena is examined via confusion rate. The conclusion that the change of Industrial Confidence Indicator can successfully predict the direction of industrial production change up to seven months in advance, is based on the results of the chi-square test.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:148:716408
Study programmeTitle: Economics
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsAccess restricted to students and staff of home institution
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2016-10-13 12:27:11