Title Ekonomski učinci obveznoga mirovinskoga osiguranja na temelju individualne kapitalizirane štednje u Republici Hrvatskoj
Title (english) Economic effects of mandatory pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings in the Republic of Croatia
Author Dražen Novaković
Mentor Alen Stojanović (mentor) MBZ: 205171
Committee member Lidija Dedi (predsjednik povjerenstva) MBZ: 265383
Committee member Alen Stojanović (član povjerenstva) MBZ: 205171
Committee member Domagoj Sajter (član povjerenstva) MBZ: 265616
Granter University of Zagreb Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb
Defense date and country 2021-01-21, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics Finance
Universal decimal classification (UDC ) 336 - Finance. Banking. Money
Abstract Istraživanje provedeno u okviru doktorskog rada ima za cilj analizirati utjecaj obveznog mirovinskog osiguranja na temelju individualne kapitalizirane štednje u Hrvatskoj na održivost mirovinskog sustava u kontekstu javnih financija, prikazati njegov učinak na adekvatnost mirovina budućih umirovljenika, analizirati financijsku uspješnost mirovinskih fondova u Hrvatskoj te procijeniti ukupne ekonomske učinke uvođenja obveznog mirovinskog osiguranja na temelju individualne kapitalizirane štednje u Hrvatskoj. Uz to, cilj rada jest široj javnosti približiti i objasniti funkcioniranje mirovinskog sustava i moguće smjerove njegovog poboljšanja. U odnosu na ranije radove, istraživanje u ovom radu zbirno analizira spomenute utjecaje mirovinskih fondova u Hrvatskoj na održivost sustava i adekvatnost mirovina te njegove ostale socijalne i ekonomske aspekte. Posebnost ovog rada nalazi se u vidu traženja smjera jačanja i razvoja obveznog mirovinskog osiguranja na temelju individualne kapitalizirane štednje u Hrvatskoj koji bi doveo do održivosti mirovinskog sustava te povećanja adekvatnosti mirovina u dugom roku, a koje se provodi metodologijom analize scenarija temeljenoj na demografskim projekcijama i starosnim mirovinama osiguranika prosječnih karakteristika. Na taj je način utvrđeno kako stopa doprinosa u drugi stup mirovinskog osiguranja ima najveći utjecaj na održivost i adekvatnost u dugom roku, a zatim slijede dužina mirovinskog staža i stopa prinosa mirovinskih fondova. Uspješnost mirovinskih fondova u Hrvatskoj je, osim tradicionalne metodologije izračuna mjera uspješnosti prilagođenih za rizik, po prvi puta analizirana primjenom metodologije analize omeđivanja podataka (engl. Data Envelopment Analysis - DEA pristup). Utvrđeno je kako obvezni mirovinski fondovi kategorija A i C nadmašuju svoje referentne vrijednosti temeljene na kategorijama imovine i pripadajućim tržišnim indeksima, dok to nije slučaj s fondovima kategorije B. Konačno, konstruirana je nova referentna vrijednost za zaštitu osiguranika u obveznim mirovinskim fondovima u Hrvatskoj budući da postojeća referentna vrijednost nije neovisna, eksterna veličina nego ovisi o prinosima mirovinskih fondova. Kako je referentna vrijednost ključni element zajamčenog prinosa kao mehanizma zaštite osiguranika koji trenutno nije optimalan, nova referentna vrijednost temelji se na pozitivnim inozemnim iskustvima uvažavajući hrvatske specifičnosti te kao takva predstavlja novi instrument za nositelje ekonomske politike i regulatora mirovinskog sustava.
Abstract (english) The research conducted in the doctoral thesis aims to analyze the impact of mandatory pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings in Croatia on the sustainability of the pension system in the context of public finances, to show its effect on the adequacy of pensions of future retirees, to analyze the financial performance of pension funds in Croatia and assess overall economic effects of the introduction of mandatory pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings in Croatia. In addition, the aim of the paper is to explain and bring closer the functioning of the pension system and possible directions for its improvement to the general public. Compared to previous papers, the research in this paper collectively analyzes the previously mentioned impacts of pension funds in Croatia on the sustainability of the system and the adequacy of pensions, as well as its other social and economic aspects. The special feature of this paper is the search for strengthening and development of mandatory pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings in Croatia, which would lead to sustainability of the pension system and increase of the pensions adequacy in the long run, which is carried out using the scenario analysis methodology based on demographic projections and old-age pensions of insured persons of average characteristics. In this way, it was determined that the contribution rate to the second pillar of pension insurance has the greatest impact on sustainability and adequacy in the long run, followed by the length of service and the rate of return of pension funds. The performance of pension funds in Croatia, in addition to the traditional methodology for calculating risk-adjusted performance measures, was for the first time analyzed using the methodology of data envelopment analysis (DEA approach). It was found that mandatory pension funds of A and C categories exceed their reference values based on asset categories and associated market indices, while this is not the case with funds of B category. Finally, a new reference value was constructed for the protection of insured persons in mandatory pension funds in Croatia as the existing reference value is not an independent, external value but depends on the returns of pension funds. As the reference value (benchmark) is a key element of the guaranteed return used as a mechanism for protecting insured persons, which is currently not optimal, the new benchmark is based on positive foreign experiences respecting Croatian specifics and as such stands as a new instrument for economic policy makers and pension system regulator.
Keywords
mirovinski sustav
individualna kapitalizirana štednja
održivost
adekvatnost
Hrvatska
Keywords (english)
pension system
individual capitalized savings
sustainability
adequacy
Croatia
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:148:059810
Promotion 2021
Study programme Title: Economics and Business Economics Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija)
Type of resource Text
Extent 296 str.
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
Terms of use
Created on 2021-02-09 22:28:06