Title Prognostička točnost, nepristranost i racionalnost investicijskih istraživanja u Europi
Title (english) Forecast accuracy, unbiasedness and rationality of investment research in Europe
Author Zoran Lukić MBZ: 342682
Mentor Josip Arnerić (mentor) MBZ: 274256
Committee member Davor Zoričić (predsjednik povjerenstva) MBZ: 258113
Granter University of Zagreb Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb
Defense date and country 2021-12-13, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics
Universal decimal classification (UDC ) 330 - Economics. Economic science
Abstract Prognoze investicijskih istraživanja o financijskim pokazateljima poduzeća značajno utječu na tržišta kapitala te su važno sredstvo potpore odlučivanju u financijskom sektoru. Nasuprot tome, dosadašnja istraživanja pretežito zaključuju da su ove prognoze nedostatno točne te da nisu nepristrane ili racionalne. Nalazi se većinom temelje na objedinjenim tržišnim podatcima za jedan pokazatelj i prognostički horizont, uglavnom za tržište SAD, te standardnim mjerama prognostičkih pogrešaka. U ovome je radu, umjesto standardnih mjera pogrešaka, predložen pojam točnosti linearnog trenda prognoza kao kriterij prihvatljivosti primjeren dugoročnim ulagateljima. Pojmovi nepristranosti i racionalnosti razmatrani su sukladno teoriji racionalnih očekivanja. Razrađena je postojeća zamisao uklanjanja procijenjene povijesne pristranosti iz budućih prognoza, u svrhu poboljšanja točnosti. Ključni su pojmovi matematički formalizirani, zajedno s dokazima potrebnih karakterizacija i svojstava, uključujući sukladnost točnosti trenda s nekim standardnim mjerama pogrešaka, kao i hijerarhijski odnos između točnosti trenda, nepristranosti i racionalnosti. Prisutnost hipoteziranih svojstava ispitana je na dosad najopsežnijem uzorku tržišno konsenzusnih prognoza europskih investicijskih istraživanja, za 233 društva s najvećim likvidnim tržišnim kapitalizacijama, tri glavna financijska pokazatelja te četiri prognostička horizonta, u razdoblju 2005. – 2017. godine. Rezultati ispitivanja, provedenih na razini pojedinih društava, upućuju da prevladavajući udio prognoza pokazuje točan trend (ukupno 64 – 67%), nepristranost (ukupno 75 – 77%) i slabu racionalnost (ukupno 67 – 71%). Postupak uklanjanja pristranosti umjereno je uspješan za kratkoročne horizonte, gdje smanjuje prosječnu pogrešku MAPE za ukupno 22%, pri čemu su pogreške smanjene kod 63% prognoza, dok za dugoročne horizonte postupak nije uspješan. Objašnjenje snažne prisutnosti poželjnih svojstava točnoga trenda, nepristranosti i slabe racionalnosti u prognozama investicijskih istraživanja jest pretežita uporaba financijskih modela društava u prognostičkom postupku, koji se, sukladno teoriji kompleksnih sustava, temelje na velikom broju prediktora i veza između varijabli te na stručnoj prosudbi analitičara.
Abstract (english) Investment research forecasts of corporate financial indicators have a significant impact on capital markets and are an important decision support tools in financial sector. In contrast, previous research largely concludes that these forecasts are insufficiently accurate, and are not unbiased or rational. The findings are mostly based on composite market data for a single indicator and forecast horizon, mainly for the US market, and standard forecast error measures. In this study, instead of standard error measures, the concept of forecast linear trend accuracy is proposed as an acceptability criterion appropriate for long-term investors. The concepts of unbiasedness and rationality are considered according to the rational expectations theory. The existing idea of eliminating the estimated historical bias from future forecasts, in order to improve accuracy, is elaborated. The key terms are mathematically formalized, along with proofs of the required characterizations and properties, including the consistency of trend accuracy with certain standard error measures, as well as the hierarchical relation between trend accuracy, unbiasedness and rationality. The presence of hypothesised properties was tested on the most comprehensive sample of market consensus forecasts of European investment research to date, for 233 companies with the largest liquid market capitalizations, three main financial indicators and four forecast horizons, in the period 2005–2017. The results of tests, conducted at the level of individual companies, indicate that the prevailing share of forecasts exhibits accurate trend (64–67% in total), unbiasedness (75–77% in total) and weak rationality (67–71% in total). The bias elimination procedure is moderately successful for short-term horizons, where it reduces the average error MAPE by a total of 22%, with errors reduced in 63% of forecasts, while for long-term horizons the procedure is not successful. The explanation for the strong presence of desirable properties of accurate trend, unbiasedness and weak rationality in investment research forecasts is the predominant use of corporate financial models in the forecasting process, which are, in accordance with the complex systems theory, based on a large number of predictors and relations between variables as well as the expert judgment of analysts.
Keywords
financijske prognoze
investicijska istraživanja
prognostička točnost
racionalna očekivanja
nepristranost
financijski modeli društava
točnost trenda
Keywords (english)
financial forecasts
investment research
forecast accuracy
rational expectations
unbiasedness
corporate financial models
trend accuracy
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:148:648318
Promotion 2022
Study programme Title: Economics and Business Economics Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija)
Type of resource Text
Extent 249 str./p.
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
Terms of use
Created on 2022-02-06 12:36:28