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master's thesis
Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva
Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, 2017. urn:nbn:hr:168:973497
Šarčević, Ana
University of Zagreb
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

Institutional repository: FER Repository

Cite this document

Šarčević, A. (2017). Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

Šarčević, Ana. "Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, 2017. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

Šarčević, Ana. "Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, 2017. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

Šarčević, A. (2017). 'Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, accessed 16 June 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

Šarčević A. Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; 2017 [cited 2024 June 16] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

A. Šarčević, "Prediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb, 2017. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:168:973497

Metadata
TitlePrediktivna analiza i modeliranje teniskih mečeva
Title (english)The Predictive Analysis and Modeling Tennis Matches
AuthorAna Šarčević
MentorMihaela Vranić (mentor)
Committee memberMihaela Vranić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberBoris Vrdoljak (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberDamir Pintar (član povjerenstva)
GranterUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
Zagreb
Defense date and country2017-07-11, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		TECHNICAL SCIENCES
Computing
Abstract
Nakon kratkog uvoda o pravilima u tenisu prikazana su i opisana dva hijerarhijska Markovljeva modela za predikciju ishoda teniskih mečeva. Prvi omogućuje predviđanje ishoda meča prije nego je sam meč započeo dok je drugim modelom dodatno omogućeno praćenje meča uživo. Pozornost je u radu posvećena i računanju ulaznih parametara modela, te je prikazan način kombiniranja statistika svakog meča ovisno o danu odigravanja povijesnih mečeva, o odstupanju od prosječne igračeve statistike te o broju odigranih poena u meču. Model je prilagođen da prati tijek meča te ažurira vjerojatnosti osvajanja vlastitog servisa nakon svakog odigranom poena u meču, uzimajući određenom težinom statistiku trenutnog meča kao i statistiku povijesnih mečeva, a prikazan je i način određivanja optimalnog težinskog parametra kojim bi se to i ostvarilo. Za kraj su implementirane različite strategije klađenja u svrhu ocjenjivanja kvalitete izvedenog modela.
Abstract (english)
After a brief introduction to tennis rules, two hierarchical Markov models for predicting the outcome of tennis matches are presented and described. The first one is used for prediction of the outcome of a tennis match before the match has started, while the other model also alows live match tracking. Attention is also paid to the calculation of the input parameters of the model, as well as the method of combining the statistics of each match depending on the day historical matches were played, the deviation from the avarage player statistics and the number of points played in the match. The model is adjusted to track the progress of the match and updates the likelihood of winning its own servise after each point in the match, taking with specific account the current match statistics as well as historical match statistics. Also a method of determining optimal weight parameters is presented. In the end, different betting strategies were implemented for the purpose of evaluating the quality of the derived model.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:168:973497
Study programmeTitle: Computing
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka računarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka računarstva)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
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Created on2019-03-14 01:07:00