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master's thesis
Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima
Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2021. urn:nbn:hr:131:625180
Samaržija, Hana
University of Zagreb
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Department of Philosophy

Institutional repository: ODRAZ

Cite this document

Samaržija, H. (2021). Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

Samaržija, Hana. "Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2021. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

Samaržija, Hana. "Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2021. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

Samaržija, H. (2021). 'Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, accessed 29 November 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

Samaržija H. Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences; 2021 [cited 2024 November 29] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

H. Samaržija, "Condorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Zagreb, 2021. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:625180

Metadata
TitleCondorcetov teorem porote u suvremenim epistemičkim uvjetima
Title (english)Condorcet's Jury Theorem in Contemporary Epistemic Conditions
AuthorHana Samaržija
MentorMislav Žitko (mentor)
Committee memberDavor Lauc (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberRaul Raunić (član povjerenstva)
GranterUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
(Department of Philosophy)
Zagreb
Defense date and country2021-09-29, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		HUMANISTIC SCIENCES
Philosophy
Theory of Knowledge
Abstract
Zagovornici epistemičkog opravdanja demokracije rado se oslanjaju na Condorcetov teorem porote, CJT. Ukratko, CJT izlaže dva opsežna argumenta. Kao prvo, većinsko glasovanje skupine neovisnih, kompetentnih i iskrenih glasača čija sposobnost pogađanja točne odluke nadilazi nasumičnost vjerojatnije će biti u pravu nego bilo koji zasebni glasač. Kao drugo, kako se broj takvih glasača približava beskonačnosti, vjerojatnost da će biti u pravu približava se sigurnosti. Međutim, glasači ne zadovoljavaju ove uvjete u epistemičkim uvjetima političke polarizacije, raširenog neznanja i strateškog glasanja za epistemički defektne stranke. Nudim pregled tri desetljeća istraživanja političkog ponašanja koje pokazuje da su glasači razočaravajuće neinformirani o politički relevantnim pitanjima i rijetko kad kadri formirati dugoročne preferencije. Učinak zajedničkog znanja pobija načelo neovisnosti, uz napomenu da su glasači značajno ovisniji o istim izvorima informacija no što je CJT pretpostavio. Konačno, empirijski podatci o stranačkim preferencijama impliciraju da građanke i građani glasuju i za one političke opcije koje drže epistemički deficijentnima ako vjeruju da će se od takvog izbora materijalno okoristiti. Ako CJT ne stoji, a ne stoji ni Hong-Pageov teorem različitosti iznad sposobnosti, čini se da nema supstancijalne kvantitativne epistemičke obrane demokracije.
Abstract (english)
Proponents of democracy's epistemic justification eagerly rely on Condorcet's Jury Theorem. CJT makes two broad claims. First, the majority vote among a group of independent, competent, and sincere voters, each of whom is better than random at choosing the right option, is more likely to be correct than any voter separately. Second, as the number of such citizens approaches infinity, the probability they will be right approaches certainty. Nonetheless, voters do not meet these requirements in the epistemic circumstances of polarization, ignorance, and strategic partisanship. I review decades of political behavior research showing voters are woefully ignorant of politically relevant facts and fail to form long-term preferences on ideological issues. The common knowledge effect refutes the condition of independence, suggesting voters are far more reliant on the same information sources than CJT had assumed. Finally, empirical data on party preferences implies citizens vote for parties whose epistemic character they do not trust if they believe they will profit from it. If the CJT does not hold, there does not seem to be a robust quantitative epistemic defense of democratic majority rule.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:131:625180
Study programmeTitle: Philosophy (double major); specializations in: Teaching, Research
Course: Research
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra filozofije (magistar/magistra filozofije)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsOpen access
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2021-11-08 08:40:35