Title Utjecaj bihevioralnih faktora na donošenje investicijskih odluka
Title (english) The impact of behavioural factors on investment decision making
Author Natali Brmalj
Mentor Elvis Mujačević (mentor)
Committee member Goran Karanović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Bojana Olgić Draženović (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Maja Gregorić (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Rijeka Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management Opatija
Defense date and country 2023-10-06, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics Finance
Universal decimal classification (UDC ) 336 - Finance. Banking. Money
Abstract Racionalnost ulagača postala je diskutabilna od vremena kada tradicionalne teorije financija nisu znale objasniti poremećaje na burzama. Burzovni krahovi jedna su od posljedica neznanja, a potječu iz bihevioralnih pristranosti koje imaju utjecaj na tržište i ne mogu se zanemariti. Stoga je za financijske stručnjake ključno da budu svjesni vlastitih bihevioralnih pristranosti kao i pristranosti drugih sudionika na financijskim tržištima, a tu nam pomažu bihevioralne financije. Bihevioralne financije pojavile su se kao zasebno polje proučavanja, spajajući bihevioralne i psihološke aspekte u donošenju ekonomskih i financijskih odluka. Bihevioralne financije istražuju utjecaj emocija i kognitivnih pogrešaka na ponašanje investitora. Odluke koje investitori donose igraju važnu ulogu u oblikovanju tržišnog trenda, što u konačnici također utječe na gospodarstvo.
Temeljem proučene literature u kontekstu bihevioralnih financija na tržištu kapitala u Hrvatskoj, uočava se nedostatak istraživanja na obje razine - makro i mikro. Također, nedostaje istraživanja o bihevioralnim faktorima institucionalnih investitora. Bez obzira na veličinu portfelja investitora, važno je razumijevanje bihevioralnih faktora i s aspekta individualnih i institucionalnih investitora jer zajedno imaju veću težinu. Međutim, obzirom da postoji znatna literatura o bihevioralnim faktorima individualnih investitora, što nije slučaj i s institucionalnim, glavni je cilj ovog doktorskog rada istražiti povezanost između faktora heuristike, faktora prospektne teorije, faktora tržišta i efekt krda na donošenje investicijskih odluka institucionalnih investitora na tržištu kapitala u Hrvatskoj. Analiza primarnih podataka provedena je kao dio empirijskog istraživanja, dok je teorijski dio istraživanja oblikovan na temelju pregleda relevantne literature. Primarni podaci prikupljeni su metodom anketiranja pomoću online strukturiranog upitnika te je prikupljeno ukupno 119 važećih anketnih upitnika. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da faktori heuristike nemaju statistički značajan utjecaj na donošenje investicijskih odluka. Točnije, radi se o heuristikama reprezentativnosti i sidrenja. Institucionalni investitori, u usporedbi s individualnim investitorima, posjeduju veće znanje o navedenim pristranostima, što može objasniti dobivene rezultate i njihovu sposobnost izbjegavanja uobičajenih kognitivnih pristranosti. S druge strane, postoji pozitivna i statistički značajna povezanost između faktora prospektne teorije, faktora tržišta i efekt krda s donošenjem investicijskih odluka institucionalnih investitora na tržištu kapitala u Hrvatskoj.
Znanstveni doprinos ovog doktorskog rada odražava se u proučavanju bihevioralnih financija, odnosno bihevioralnih faktora, koje su u usporedbi s tradicionalnim teorijama financija novo područje kojem se pridaje sve veća pažnja u znanstvenoj literaturi. Ova doktorska disertacija pridonosi razvoju učinkovitijih investicijskih strategija, prepoznavanju i razumijevanju bihevioralnih pristranosti te poboljšanju procesa donošenja investicijskih odluka. Budući da se ovakvo istraživanje do sada nije provodilo u Republici Hrvatskoj, dobiveni rezultati mogu biti korisni u budućim edukacijama institucionalnih investitora i razvoju regulatornih politika u budućnosti.
Abstract (english) The rationality of investors is disputed because traditional financial theories are unable to explain stock market crises. Stock market crises are one of the consequences of ignorance, and they originate in behaviours that influence the market and cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is crucial for financial professionals to be aware of their own behaviour as well as the behaviour of other participants in the financial markets. Behavioural finance is a distinct field of research that combines behavioural and psychological aspects of economic and financial decision-making. Behavioural finance seeks to determine how emotions and cognitive errors influence investor behaviour. Investors' decisions play an important role in shaping market developments that ultimately influence the economy.
Based on the literature reviewed on behavioural finance in the Croatian capital market, a lack of research at both levels - macro and micro - can be identified. There is also a lack of research on the behavioural factors of institutional investors. Since institutional investors play an important role in the capital market, their investment decisions have a significant impact on the performance of individual companies and the capital market as a whole. The importance of this research is reflected in the fact that disruptions in financial markets are an aggregate reflection of inappropriate investment decisions at the micro level, so it is important to understand them. Considering that there is an extensive literature on the behavioural factors of individual investors, which is not the case for institutional investors, the main objective of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between heuristic factors, prospect theory factors, market factors and the herd effect in the investment decisions of institutional investors in the Croatian capital market. The literature review defines the theoretical framework of the research area, while the empirical part of the paper involves the analysis of primary data. The primary data was collected through a survey using a structured online questionnaire. The research was conducted with a sample of 119 institutional investors trading on the Croatian capital market. In order to test the hypotheses, the methods of descriptive statistical analysis and partial least squares path modelling (PLS-SEM) were applied and the collected data were processed using the SmartPLS4 programme. The research results show that heuristic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on investment decisions. More specifically, the heuristics in question are representativeness and anchoring. The results obtained can be explained by the fact that institutional investors are more familiar with the above-mentioned biases compared to retail investors and therefore avoid the usual cognitive biases. Moreover, they are more systematic in their investment decisions and rely on detailed analysis and research on various data. On the other hand, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between prospect theory factors, market factors and the herd effect in investment decisions of institutional investors in the Croatian capital market. The analysis of the influence of behavioural factors on investment decisions is important for all participants in the capital market. It should be noted that behavioural factors can have both a positive and a negative influence on investment decisions, but they are certainly not the only determining factors. Institutional investors generally have access to more information, but they also have a fiduciary duty to their clients, which means that they must act in their clients' best interests when making investment decisions. Their investment decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets. It is therefore important for investors, regulators and policy makers to understand how behavioural factors can influence their investment decisions.
The scientific contribution of this dissertation manifests itself in the study of behavioural finance, i.e. behavioural factors, which, compared to traditional financial theories, is a new area that is receiving increasing attention in the scientific literature. This dissertation contributes to the development of more effective investment strategies, the detection and understanding of behavioural errors and the improvement of the decision-making process. Since this type of research has not been conducted in the Republic of Croatia before, the results obtained may be useful for future education of institutional investors and development of future regulatory measures.
Keywords
bihevioralne financije
bihevioralni faktori
faktori tržišta
investicijske odluke
Keywords (english)
behavioural finance
behavioural factors
market factors
investment decisions
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:191:786953
Promotion 2023
Study programme Title: Management of Sustainable Development Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija)
Type of resource Text
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
Terms of use
Created on 2023-10-09 12:25:37