Title Oborinske i temperaturne prilike na Plitvičkim jezerima i mogući utjecaji klimatskih promjena Title (english) Precipitation and temperature conditions on Plitvice lakes and possible impacts of climate change Author Diana Krajcar Mentor Josip Rubinić (mentor)Committee member Barbara Karleuša (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Igor Ružić (član povjerenstva)Committee member Josip Rubinić (član povjerenstva)Granter University of Rijeka Defense date and country 2021-07-16, Croatia Scientific / art field, TECHNICAL SCIENCES Abstract U ovom radu analizirane su oborinske i temperaturne prilike na Plitvičkim jezerima. Nacionalni park Plitvička jezera je najveći i najstariji nacionalni park u Hrvatskoj i smješten na dodiru Korduna i Like, na samom izvoru krške rijeke Korane. Sveukupno 16 jezera čine ovaj nacionalni park koja su međusobno povezana slapovima i kaskadama. Na Plitvičkim jezerima prevladava umjereno topla i vlažna klima s toplim ljetima (Cfb) u kojoj je srednja temperatura zraka najtoplijeg mjeseca niža od 22 °C, tzv. klima bukve. Podaci o mjesečnim oborinama i temperaturama uzeti su s jezerima najbliže postaje Plitvica u periodu od 1956. do 2015. godine. Analizirane su srednje mjesečne količina oborina i temperature zraka u Fosterovom dijagramu kako bi se vremenski i prostorno uočile i pratile značajke klime. Znatno je vidljiva razlika u temperaturama između prvog dijela promatranog razdoblja (1956. – 1985. ) i drugog dijela (1986. – 2015.) gdje su temperature zraka veće, a promijenjen je i režim oborina. Nadalje, analizirani su godišnji hodovi temperature zraka s rezultirajućim trendom koji je rastući i oborina čiji je trend u padu. Prikazane su unutargodišnje osnovne statističke analize: srednje vrijednosti, standardna devijacija, koeficijent varijacije te maksimalne i minimalne vrijednosti oborina i temperature zraka. Najveća količina oborina na Plitvičkim jezerima je u studenom (163 mm), dok je najmanja količina u mjesecu srpnju (110 mm). Najveće temperature zraka su u srpnju (18,0 °C), a najmanje u siječnju (-0,8 °C). Proveden je proračun vjerojatnosti pojave maksimalnih i minimalnih količina godišnjih i mjesečnih oborina i temperatura korištenjem teorijskih funkcija raspodjele vjerojatnosti tipa Gumbel. Promjene klime mogu biti izazvane ljudskim aktivnostima kojima u atmosferu dolaze plinovi staklenika, a oni imaju ključnu ulogu u zagrijavanju atmosfere. Kako bi se procijenile promjene klime u budućnosti, definirane su buduće emisije ugljikovog dioksida i drugih plinova staklenika u atmosferi.
Abstract (english) In this paper, precipitation and temperature conditions on Plitvice Lakes are analyzed. National Park Plitvice Lakes is the largest and oldest national park in Croatia and is located at the junction of Kordun and Lika, at the source of the karst river Korana. The national park consists of 16 lakes connected by waterfalls and cascades. Plitvice Lakes have a moderately warm and humid climate with warm summers (Cfb) in which the average air temperature of the warmest month is lower than 22 ° C, the so-called climate of the beech. Data on monthly precipitation and temperatures were taken from the nearest station to the lakes in the period from 1956 to 2015. Mean monthly precipitation and air temperatures were analyzed in the Foster diagram to observe and monitor climate characteristics in time and space. The results showed a significant difference in temperatures between the first part of the observed period (1956 - 1985) and the second part (1986 - 2015) in which air temperatures were higher, and the precipitation regime has changed. Furthermore, the annual air temperature strokes with the resulting upward trend and precipitation with a downward trend were analyzed. Intra-annual basic statistical analyzes are presented: mean values, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and maximum and minimum values of precipitation and air temperature. The highest amount of precipitation on Plitvice Lakes is in November (163 mm), while the lowest amount is in July (110 mm). The highest air temperatures are in July (18.0 ° C) and the lowest in January (-0.8 ° C). The calculation of the probabilities of occurrence of maximum and minimum amounts of annual and monthly precipitation and temperatures was performed using theoretical probability distribution functions of the Gumbel type. Climate change can be caused by human activities that bring greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and they play a key role in warming the atmosphere. In order to assess climate change in the future, future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been defined.
Keywords
Plitvička jezera
klima
oborine
temperature zraka
trend
vjerojatnosti pojave
Keywords (english)
Plitvice Lakes
climate
precipitation
air temperatures
trend
probabilities of occurrence
Language croatian URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:157:652963 Project Number: Ugovor br. 7989116 Project Number: uniri-tehnic-18-298 Study programme Title: Civil Engineering; specializations in: Building in Coastal Region and Infrastructural Engineering Type of resource Text File origin Born digital Access conditions Access restricted to students and staff of home institution Terms of use Created on 2021-07-23 10:08:18
