Title RAZVOJ MODELA SUSTAVSKE DINAMIKE ZA PLANIRANJE LJUDSKIH POTENCIJALA U ODGOJU I OBRAZOVANJU
Title (english) A SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING IN EDUCATION
Author Krešo Tomljenović
Mentor Vatroslav Zovko (mentor)
Mentor Martina Holenko Dlab (komentor)
Committee member Ana Meštrović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Marina Ivašić-Kos (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Mario Dumančić (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Rijeka (Faculty of Informatics and Digital Technologies) Rijeka
Defense date and country 2023-10-27, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Information and Communication Sciences
Universal decimal classification (UDC ) 378 - Higher education. Universities. Academic study
Abstract Osiguranje adekvatnog i održivog broja ljudskih potencijala preduvjet je kvalitete nastave. Hrvatska je među tri europske zemlje koje ne provode sustavne analize tržišta rada u kontekstu predikcije zapošljivosti nakon završenog višeg obrazovanja svih struka pa tako niti učitelja i nastavnika. Metodološki okvir razvoja dinamičkih modela za modeliranje ljudskih potencijala u sustavu odgoja i obrazovanja primijenjen u ovom radu predstavlja doprinos koji će omogućiti strateško planiranje te alat za simulacijsko eksperimentiranje s ciljem smanjivanja neizvjesnosti pri planiranju u budućem periodu. Primijenjeni model se temelji na metodi sustavske dinamike s elementima modeliranja temeljenom na agentima. Koristeći prednosti obiju metoda je izrađen hibridni model koji implementira prednosti suvremene informacijsko-komunikacijske tehnologije te omogućava fleksibilnost u razvoju modela i primjenjivost u različitim područjima. Vlastitim metodološkim okvirom se predlažu četiri faze u razvoju modela: definicija, dizajn, analiza i verifikacija te validacija. Važno je naglasiti da se postupak vrednovanja modela razdvaja u dvije faze, verifikaciju odnosno unutarnju potvrdu valjanosti modela, te validaciju odnosno vanjsku potvrdu od strane korisnika. To podrazumijeva značajniju interakciju korisnika modela i istraživača jer se osim točnosti dobivenih vrijednosti ispituje primjenjivost i korisnost modela. Metodološki okvir je primijenjen na sustav primarnog obrazovanje u Republici Hrvatskoj. Izrađeni model je verificiran temeljem relevantnih podataka iz razdoblja od 2010. do 2021. godine. Razvijeni su scenariji unutar kojih korisnik može interaktivno mijenjati vrijednosti parametara te pratiti promjene. Takvim simulacijama se postiže bolji uvid u zakonitosti unutar sustava te omogućava bolje planiranje u odnosu na uobičajene metode planiranja. Kako bi se korisniku omogućilo samostalno korištenje modela i kreiranih scenarija bez poznavanja programskog koda ili metoda simulacijskog modeliranja, razvijeno je i grafičko korisničko sučelje. Scenarijima i grafičkim korisničkim sučeljem se omogućila validacija izrađenog modela te je na temelju ocjena stručnjaka prikupljenih putem ankete zaključeno kako je model koristan za upravljanje ljudskim potencijalima i upisnom politikom. Konačno, zaključeno je kako razvijeni metodološki okvir omogućava podršku odlučivanju pri planiranju ljudskih potencijala u sustavu odgoja i obrazovanja.
Abstract (english) Ensuring an adequate and sustainable quantity of human resources is a prerequisite for teaching quality. Croatia is one of just three nations in Europe that doesn't conduct systematic labor market analyses in order to forecast employability for all professions after graduation from higher education, including teachers. The methodological framework for the development of dynamic models for modeling human potential in the education system proposed in this dissertation represents a significant contribution to facilitating strategic planning and serves as a tool for simulation experiments aimed at reducing planning uncertainty in the future. The proposed model is based on the system dynamics method with agent-based modeling elements. By using the advantages of both methods, a hybrid model was created that implements the advantages of modern information and communication technology and enables flexibility in model development and applicability in different areas. Own methodological framework proposes four stages in model development: definition, design, analysis and verification, and validation. It is important to emphasize that the process of evaluating the model is divided into two phases, verification or internal confirmation of the model’s validity, and validation or external confirmation by the user. This means that the user of the model and the researcher work more closely together, as not only the accuracy of the values obtained is verified, but also the applicability and usefulness of the model. The methodological framework was applied to the system of primary education in the Republic of Croatia. The developed model was verified using relevant data from the years 2010 to 2021. Scenarios were developed in which the user can interactively change parameter values and monitor changes. Compared to conventional planning methods, such simulations offer a deeper understanding of the regularities in the system and enable better planning A graphical user interface was developed that allows the user to independently use the model and the scenarios created without knowledge of program code or simulation modeling methods. The model was validated using scenarios and a graphical user interface, and it was found that the model was useful for managing enrollment policy and human resources based on expert opinions collected through a survey. It was found that the created methodological framework provides decision support for human resources planning in the education system.
Keywords
planiranje ljudskih potencijala
podrška odlučivanju
sustavska dinamika
sustav odgoja i obrazovanja
upisna politika
metodološki okvir
AnyLogic
Keywords (english)
human resources planning
decision support
systemic dynamics
education system
enrollment policy
methodological framework
AnyLogic
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:195:947960
Promotion 2023
Study programme Title: Informatics Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor znanosti iz znanstvenog područja Društvene znanosti, polja Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti. (doktor znanosti iz znanstvenog područja Društvene znanosti, polja Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti.)
Type of resource Text
Extent 164 str.
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
Terms of use
Created on 2023-11-14 10:24:30