| Abstract | U ovome radu analizirani su rizici u financijskom sustavu Republike Hrvatske od 2009. do 2019. godine, odnosno do 2020. koju je obiljeţila pojava pandemije koronavirusa. Poseban naglasak stavljen je na financijsku stabilnost i na makroprudencijalne mjere koje sluţe očuvanju financijske stabilnosti. Cilj rada je analizom potvrditi ili opovrgnuti postavljene hipoteze koje se odnose na to osigurava li pristup i metode upravljanja rizicima u financijskom sustavu financijsku stabilnost, jesu li koncentracija u bankovnom sektoru i vanjski šokovi izvori sistemskog rizika i osiguravaju li makroprudencijalna politika i mjere brzu prilagodbu i sprječavaju li negativne posljedice šokova. Cilj je bio i analizom pronaći korelaciju izmeĎu realnih stopa BDP-a, kredita poduzećima, kredita stanovništvu i CROBEX- a. Nakon teorijskog dijela, analiziran je bankarski sektor, odnosno kreditni plasmani banaka prema stanovništvu i nefinancijskim poduzećima koji čine najveći udio kreditnih plasmana banaka. Procjena rizika analizirana je deskriptivno te je istaknuta prednost risk based approacha u odnosu na rule based approach. Korištenje financijske poluge je manje u odnosu na pretkrizno razdoblje zbog razduţivanja poduzeća i kućanstava, dok je stopa ukupnoga kapitala uglavnom biljeţila trend rasta što upućuje na dobru kapitaliziranost hrvatskih banaka. Analizirajući stope promjene kredita, leasinga i faktoringa primijećeno je kako su najznačajnije amplitude u kretanju zabiljeţene kod imovine faktoringa kroz cijelo promatrano razdoblje, dok su krediti i imovina leasinga većinu vremena u obrnuto proporcionalnom odnosu. Iako su kamate na štednju blizu nule, u Republici Hrvatskoj je i dalje značajno prisutna štednja u bankama, dok nerazvijenost investiranja u druge kategorije imovine čini financijsko trţište zanemarenim. Obvezna pričuva osiguravajućih društava i ulaganje imovine za pokriće obvezne pričuve biljeţili su kontinuiran porast tijekom cijeloga promatranog razdoblja. U petom dijelu rada metodom deskriptivne statistike ispitana je povezanost realnih stopa BDP-a, kredita poduzećima, kredita stanovništvu i CROBEX-a te je utvrĎeno da se sve promjene dogaĎaju autonomno i da nema korelacije meĎu varijablama. Prva hipoteza, koja podrazumijeva da pristup i metode upravljanja rizicima u financijskom sustavu osiguravaju financijsku stabilnost je potvrĎena. UtvrĎeno je da su koncentracija u bankovnom sektoru i vanjski šokovi izvori sistemskog rizika čime je potvrĎena i druga hipoteza. Regulatorni zahtjevi kao i makroprudencijalne mjere sluţe očuvanju stabilnosti financijskog sustava i usmjerene su na povećanje otpornosti na šokove i time je potvrĎena II treća hipoteza koja podrazumijeva da makroprudencijalna politika i mjere osiguravaju brzu prilagodbu i sprječavaju negativne posljedice šokova. |
| Abstract (english) | In this thesis are analysed risks of the financial sector of the Republic of Croatia from 2009. to 2009., or until 2020. which was marked by a coronavirus pandemic. Special emphasis was placed on financial stability and on macroprudential measures that serve to preserve financial stability. The aim of this thesis was to confirm or refuse hypotheses about whether the approach and methods of risk management in the financial system ensure financial stability, whether concentration in the banking sector and external shocks are sources of systemic risk, and whether macroprudential policies and measures ensure rapid adjustment and prevent negative shocks. The goal was through analysis to find a correlation between real GDP rates, corporate loans, retail loans and CROBEX. After the theoretical part, the banking sector is analyzed, i.e. credit placements of banks to households and non-financial corporations, which make up the largest share of credit placements of banks. The risk assessment was descriptively analyzed and the advantage of the risk based approach over the rule based approach was highlighted. The use of financial leverage is lower compared to the pre-crisis period due to the deleveraging of companies and households, while the total capital ratio mainly recorded a growth trend, which indicates the good capitalization of Croatian banks. Analyzing the rates of change in loans, leasing and factoring, it was observed that the most significant amplitudes of movements were observed in factoring assets during the observed period, while loans and leasing assets were inversely proportional most of the time. Although interest rates on savings are close to zero, savings in banks are still significantly present in the Republic of Croatia, while the underdevelopment of alternatives to investments in other asset classes makes the capital market neglected. The reserve requirement of insurance companies and the investment of assets to cover the reserve requirement recorded a continuous increase throughout the observed period. In the fifth part of the thesis, using the method of descriptive statistics, the relationship between real GDP rates, corporate loans, retail loans and CROBEX was examined and it was found that all changes occur autonomously and that there is no correlation between variables. The first hypothesis, which implies that the approach and methods of risk management in the financial sector ensure financial stability, has been confirmed. Concentration in the banking sector and external shocks were found to be sources of systemic risk, thus confirming the second hypothesis. Regulatory requirements as well as macroprudential measures serve to maintain the stability of the financial system and are aimed at increasing resilience to shocks, IV thus confirming the third hypothesis, which implies that macroprudential policies and measures ensure rapid adjustment and prevent the negative consequences of shocks. |
