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master's thesis
Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju
Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, 2019. urn:nbn:hr:217:021556
Krčelić, Patrik
University of Zagreb
Faculty of Science
Department of Geophysics

Institutional repository: Repository of the Faculty of Science

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Krčelić, P. (2019). Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

Krčelić, Patrik. "Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, 2019. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

Krčelić, Patrik. "Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, 2019. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

Krčelić, P. (2019). 'Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, accessed 23 November 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

Krčelić P. Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science; 2019 [cited 2024 November 23] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

P. Krčelić, "Predviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Zagreb, 2019. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:021556

Metadata
TitlePredviđanje jakosti 25. Sunčevog ciklusa ARMA modelom i procjena geomagnetske aktivnosti u tom razdoblju
Title (english)The forecast of the strength of the solar cycle 25 using ARMA model and estimation of geomagnetic activity in that period
AuthorPatrik Krčelić
MentorGiuliana Verbanac (mentor)
Committee memberGiuliana Verbanac (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberIvica Sović (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberŽeljko Večenaj (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberZoran Pasarić (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberJosip Stipčević (član povjerenstva)
GranterUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Science
(Department of Geophysics)
Zagreb
Defense date and country2019-09-26, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		NATURAL SCIENCES
Geophysics
Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior
Abstract
U radu je predstavljeno predviđanje 25. Sunčevog ciklusa analizom broja Sunčevih pjega ARMA modelom. Trenutno se nalazimo na kraju 24. Sunčevog cikusa, a 25. Sunčev ciklus počet će s minumumom Sunčeve aktivnosti koja se očekuje do kraja 2019. godine. Korišteni red metode bio je ARMA(3,3). Predviđanja su dosta dobra ukoliko imamo trend pada makismuma. Razlog tomu je što je ARMA statistička metoda, a statistički je više bilo padova Sunčevih maksimuma od rasta. Osim samog predviđanja, ispitana je i veza Sunčeve aktivnosti s geomagnetskim indeksima aa, Dst i AE. Spomenuti indeksi se dobro koreliraju s brojem Sunčevih pjega te je pretpostavljena linearna veza među parametrima. Za aa indeks je ta veza djelomično dobra pa se može iskoristiti u sklopu nekog budućeg istraživanja s obzirom da je trend dosta dobro opisan. AE indeks ima preveliku raspršenost te se linearna veza ne može primijeniti. Dst indeks daje vrlo pouzdane rezultate. Linearna veza ovdje je poprilično dobra i može se koristiti za procjenu aktivnosti. Također je napravljeno i predviđanje geomagnetskih indeksa iz rezultata predviđanja ARMA modelom i linearne regresije Sunčevih pjega i geomagnetskih indeksa.
Abstract (english)
The forecast of the 25. Solar cycle was made using the ARMA model analysis of the sunspot number. We are currently at the end of 24. solar cycle and 25. solar cycle will start with minimum of the solar activity, which is expected by the end of year 2019. The order of the model was ARMA(3,3). This forecast gives very good results for the trend of the downgoing maximum of the cycles. Reason for this behaviour is the fact that the ARMA is statistic model and statistically there are more downgoing than upgoing trends of maximum of the cycle. Aside from the forecast, the connection between sunspot number and geomagnetic indices aa, Dst and AE, was also analysed. The mentioned indices correlate well with sunspot number and the linear dependence between this parameters was assumed. For aa index this dependence is partially good, and can be used as a part of another research, considering the fact that the trend of index matches very well. AE index has too big standard deviation and linear function can not be used. Dst index gives very reliable results and can be used to estimate geomagnetic activity. Linear function matches very well and can be used. The forecast of the geomagnetic indices was also made using the results of the ARMA model and linear regression of geomagnetic indices.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:217:021556
Study programmeTitle: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
Course: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsOpen access
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2019-10-10 09:14:17