Title Okunov zakon u Hrvatskoj i Slovačkoj
Title (english) Okun's law in Croatia and Slovakia
Author Vanja Grbac
Mentor Daniel Tomić (mentor)
Committee member Saša Stjepanović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Daniel Tomić (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Lela Tijanić (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Pula (Faculty of economics and tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković") Pula
Defense date and country 2019-09-13, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics General Economy
Abstract Nezaposlenost i BDP, kao varijable koje je originalno Okun koristio za svoju analizu gdje je došao do zaključka kako će povećanje nezaposlenosti za 1% dovesti do smanjenja BDP a za 3% 3%, mogu biti vrlo dobri indikatori o stanju na tržištu rada i gospodarskom rastu u određenoj zemlji. Analiza Okunova zakona za Hrvatsku i Slovačku temeljena na ekonometrijskoj procjeni regresije VAR modela pokazala je niske koeficijente u izračunu, odnosno male promjene ukoliko se parametri povećaju ili smanje. Za Hrvatsku se an alizom pokazalo da postoji nelinarna veza između varijabli, odnosno da će nezaposlenost u BDP u izazvati veće promjene nego obrnuta situacija dok za je za Slovačku utvrđeno kako će promjene u BDP u imati veće implikacije na nezaposlenost nego obrnuta. Ovak vim rezultatima utvrđeno je kako je uzrok takvih odnosa u različitosti vođenja gospodarstva te ponajprije različitostima na tržištima rada. Uostalom, iako po određenim obilježjima slične zemlje, Slovačka se pokazala uspješnijom u pogledu reformi u poreznom sustavu i tržištu rada što je i vidljivo kroz visok Okunov koeficijent koji je postigla uz snažne stope rasta, odnosno kako stoji u radu jedino uz snažne stope rasta moguće je sniziti ili održati nezaposlenost stabilnom . Nizak koeficijent općenito prikazu je rigidnost tržišta rada, odnosno visoku sigurnost za radnika i s time teže zapošljavanje od strane poslodavca, što je primjer u Hrvatskoj, gdje zbog raznih zakonskih regulativa ne čini ju atraktivnom za privlačenje investicija ili za zadržavanjem postoje ćih. Svaka zemlja trebala bi voditi svoju makroekonomsku politiku ali je prilikom utvrđivanja određenih anomalija u gospodarstvu potrebno sagledati širu sliku, odnosno sagledati primjere dobre prakse kao što je u ovom slučaju primjer Slovačke koja je uspje la provesti tranziciju vrlo efikasno ali jedino uz reforme koje su imale utjecaja na strukturu gospodarstva i tržišta rada.
Abstract (english) Unemployment and the GDP, the variables that Okun has used for it ̓s own analysis where he came to the conclusion that an increase of 1% in unemployment will cause a decre a se in GDP by 3%, can be good indicators for analysing in what conditions are the labour market and the level of economic growth. The analysis for Croatia and Slovakia, based on the econometric method using the VAR model, showed low coefficients in calculations of the Okun ̓s law that proved little changes wheather the variables parameters increase or decrease. The Croatian analysis showed a nonlinear relationship between the variables, regarding changes in unemployment will cause much more changes in GDP that the opposite situat ion. The Slovakian analysis showed an inverse situation that the one in Croatia regarding that a increase or decrease in GDP will have much more implications on unemployment that the opposite situation. The cause of these results is certainly in the way any country manages it ̓s own labour mark et policies and the differences between each country. Though Croatia and Slovakia have much simil iarties , Slovakia has proved that a little country can have a good management of it ̓s labour market making reforms in this area and the area of taxes, which is proved by the higher Okun ̓s coefficient achieved by strong economic growth increase. Only with strong economic growth increase it is possible to maintain or reduce the unemployment rate. Low Okun ̓s coefficient i n general show s a labour market rigidity with higher safety for workers and much more difficulties for the employer to hire new workforce. That example is well known in Croatia, in which many law regulations make it unattractive for FDI or maintaining alre ady existing employers. Every country, like said before, should lead it ̓s own macroeconomic policy, but for better management sometimes is good to see other good examples, like in this case Slovakia, that is a example of an little country that had a good transition only with reforms that changed the labour market and had positive effects on economic growth.
Keywords
nezaposlenost
bruto domaći proizvod Okunov zakon
Okunov koeficijent
tranzicija
tržište rada
ekonomski rast
Hrvatska
Slovačka
Keywords (english)
unemployment
GDP
Okun ̓s law
Okun ̓s coefficient
transition
labour market
economic growth
Slovakia
Croatia
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:137:669906
Study programme Title: Economics Study programme type: university Study level: graduate Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
Type of resource Text
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
Terms of use
Created on 2020-12-10 11:28:12