Title Usklađenost i sličnost poslovnih ciklusa s prosjekom zemalja EU; slučaj Slovenije
Title (english) Business cycle coherence analysis: the case of Slovenia
Author Marija Kenjereš
Mentor Daniel Tomić (mentor)
Committee member Lela Tijanić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Daniel Tomić (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Sanja Blažević (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Pula (Faculty of economics and tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković") Pula
Defense date and country 2016-05-05, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics General Economy
Abstract Nakon istraživanja pokazalo se da većina znanstvenika koristi pojam usklađenosti kako bi objasnili koherentnost između cikličkih kretanja rasta između zemalja. Varijable poput BDP-a, potrošnje i investicija rastu/padaju/osciliraju kroz vrijeme stoga statistička mjerenja poslovnih ciklusa zahtijevaju vremenske serije. Upravo taj problem riješen je izvlačenjem trenda, odnosno detrendiranjem podataka. Takva procedura u makroekonomiji omogućena je pomoću Hodrick Prescott filtera koji smo koristili u analizi poslovnih ciklusa. Metodologijski okvir ove studije je baziran na dvije analize: prva je evaluacija cikličkih karakteristika osnovnih makroekonomskih varijabli i druga je mjerenje sinkronizacije poslovnih ciklusa Slovenske ekonomije sa prosjekom EU. Rezultati analize koji su prikazani pokazuju da razine usklađenosti i sličnosti fluktuiraju kroz vrijeme, Usklađenost je puno manje volatilna nego sličnost. Korelacija od 0,17% između ove dvije mjere kroz vrijeme ilustrira da su usklađenost i sličnost zapravo dva različita koncepta koja teže promjenama i fluktuiraju unutar vremenske domene. Isto tako, to nam pokazuje da odstupanja u poslovnim ciklusima i utjecaji različitih šokova imaju različite efekte na ponašanje i opseg rasta u Sloveniji što je indikativno za razumnu ekonomsku politiku. Nakon svega, zaključak je da obje koherentnosti rastu unutar analiziranog perioda, odnosno, njihov (međusobni) pozitivni trend je ponešto drugačiji dok većina odabranih varijabli pokazuje procikličke vodeće trendove. Stoga se ne može govoriti o čistoj fazi razdvajanja za Sloveniju, sve dok razvoj trgovine i financijski tokovi utječu na veću sinkronizaciju ekonomskog rasta između Slovenije i EU, osobito nakon prihvaćanja eura, jedino prethodna kriza opstruira ovaj uzorak u nekim ponašanjima. Zapravo, koncept usklađenosti još ima i vremena i prostora kako bi zadobio višu razinu empirijskog uvažavanja, osobito u zemljama srednje i istočne Europe.
Abstract (english) After the research we can conclude that most scientists use the term synchronization to explain the coherence between the cyclical growths between countries. The variables such as GDP, consumption and investment are rising/falling/changing over time because the statistical measurements of business cycles require time series. This specific problem is resolved by the extraction of trend, or de-trending data. Such a procedure in macroeconomics is enabled by using the Hodrick Prescott filter that we used in the analysis of business cycles. Methodological framework of this study is based on two analyses: the first is evaluation of cyclical characteristics of macroeconomic variables and the second is measuring of synchronization of business cycles of Slovenian economy with the EU average. Results of the analysis, as presented, show that the level of synchronization and similarity fluctuate over time, however, synchronization is much less volatile than similarity. The correlation of 0.17% between the two measures over time illustrates that the synchronicity and similarity are in fact two different concepts which tend to change and fluctuate within the time domain. Also, it shows that variations in the business cycles and the effects of different shocks have different effects on the behaviour and the extent of growth in Slovenia, which is indicative for the rational economic policy. After all, the conclusion is that both coherence measurements increase under the analyzed period, or, their positive trend is somewhat different while most of the selected variables show pro-cyclical leading trends. The conclusion is that we cannot talk about the clear separation phase for Slovenia, as long as the development of trade and financial flows affect the greater synchronization of economic growth between Slovenia and the EU, especially after the adoption of the euro, only the previous crises obstruct this pattern in certain aspects. In fact, the concept of synchronization still has time and space to gain a higher level of empirical respect, especially within the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Keywords
poslovni ciklusi
Slovenija
gospodarska slika
istraživanja
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:137:624975
Study programme Title: Economics Study programme type: university Study level: graduate Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
Type of resource Text
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
Terms of use
Created on 2016-06-02 11:10:31