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master's thesis
Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom
Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, 2017. urn:nbn:hr:119:776962
Lonjak, Ivan
University of Zagreb
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences
Division of Transport
Department of Air Transport

Institutional repository: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences

Cite this document

Lonjak, I. (2017). Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

Lonjak, Ivan. "Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, 2017. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

Lonjak, Ivan. "Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, 2017. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

Lonjak, I. (2017). 'Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, accessed 26 June 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

Lonjak I. Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; 2017 [cited 2024 June 26] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

I. Lonjak, "Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Zagreb, 2017. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:119:776962

Metadata
TitleMetode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom
Title (english)Forecasting methods in the context of air navigation services
AuthorIvan Lonjak
MentorTomislav Mihetec (mentor)
Committee memberAndrija Vidović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberArijana Modić (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberSanja Steiner (član povjerenstva)
GranterUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences
(Division of Transport)
(Department of Air Transport)
Zagreb
Defense date and country2017-09-26, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		TECHNICAL SCIENCES
Traffic and Transport Technology
Air Traffic
Abstract
Raspoloživi statistički podaci trenutnog stanja zračnog prometa omogućavaju adekvatno razumijevanje prošlih događaja. Prije odabira adekvatne prognostičke metode, evaluiraju se ulazni podaci koji najefikasnije odražavaju prometne pokazatelje u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom u predviđenom razdoblju prognoze. Nije točno definirana univerzalna primjena određene metode, ali se u praktičnoj primjeni koristi kombinacija srodnih kvantitativnih metoda prognoziranja koje događaje iskazuju u numeričkom obliku i pomoću analiza iskazuju prošle pojave te čimbenike koji su utjecali na njih. Ocjena odabira adekvatne prognostičke metode zavisi o korelaciji trenutnog stanja i predviđanja prometnih pokazatelja. Prognoza se izrađuje za određenu državu ili regiju koja je predmetom prognoze IFR kretanja zrakoplova (domaći, dolazni i odlazni, preleti) i broja jedinica usluge (rutne i terminalne jedinice usluge). Na području Europe koriste se tri vremenska razdoblja prognoziranja. Vremensko razdoblje od dvije godine unaprijed integrirano u srednjoročnu prognozu, zatim vremensko razdoblje od sedam godina zasnovano na kratkoročnoj prognozi i naposljetku, vremensko razdoblje u narednih 20 godina koje uzima u obzir niz mogućih scenarija koji će odražavati budući izgled industrije zračnog prometa.
Abstract (english)
Available statistical data of the actual air traffic status provide an adequate understanding of past events. Prior to selecting an adequate forecast method, input data are evaluated, which most efficiently reflect traffic indicators in context of air traffic management to predicted period of the forecast. There is no universal agreement about the application of a particular method, but in practice a combination of related quantitative forecasting methods is applied. They express events in numerical form and by analysis show past phenomena and the factors influencing them. The selection of an adequate prognostic method depends on the correlation of the actual state and prediction of traffic indicators. The forecast is made for a particular country or region that is subject to the IFR flight movements (internal, arrival and departure, overflight) and number of service units (en-route and terminal navigation service units). Three time horizons forecasting periods are used in Europe. The two-year timeframe pre-integrated into the mid-term forecast, followed by a seven-year time horizon based on short-term forecasts and, finally, a time horizon over the next 20 years that takes into account a number of possible scenarios that will reflect the future appearance of the aviation industry.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:119:776962
Study programmeTitle: Traffic and Transport; specializations in: Road Traffic and Transport, Railway Traffic and Transport, Water Traffic and Transport, Air Traffic and Transport, Postal Traffic, Information and Communication Traffic, Urban Traffic and Transport
Course: Air Traffic and Transport
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsOpen access
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2017-10-19 09:39:59