Sažetak | U vinogradarstvu i vinarstvu Republike Hrvatske sabrani su tradicija, žrtva i nada,
jedinstvenost terroira i sortimenta. Osim ove gotovo „romantične“ slike, vinogradari i vinari
izloženi su svakodnevnom dokazivanju na tržištu. Upravljanje rizicima važan je dio
poslovnog uspjeha i potrebno im je posvetiti važnost i sagledati ih u cjelini.
Ciljevi istraživanja bili su analizirati rizik u poslovanju, rangirati vinarije prema stupnju
rizika i dati preporuke instrumenata upravljanja rizikom te ustanoviti učinkovitost
strateškog upravljanja rizikom primjenom stohastičkih simulacija.
U radu su korištene metode analize rizika, strateškog upravljanja, anketnog ispitivanja,
regresijska, korelacijska i financijska analiza i stohastičke simulacije.
Rezultati su pokazali da anketirane vinarije u Hrvatskoj prepoznaju rizike i strategije, ali
nedovoljno primjenjuju strategije upravljanja rizicima. Ispitanici smatraju važnim
primjenjivati strategije za upravljanje rizicima na gospodarstvu (poput pridržavanja
tehnologije i agrotehničkih rokova, prodaje putem više različitih kanala, …) i izvan
gospodarstva (poput korištenja programa potpore) te strategije prijenosa rizika
(osiguranje,...). S druge strane, ispitanici ponekad i često primjenjuju strategije izvan
gospodarstva i ponekad primjenjuju strategije za upravljanje rizicima na gospodarstvu.
Strategije prijenosa rizika rijetko se primjenjuju u anketiranim vinarijama u Hrvatskoj.
Financijski pokazatelji sugeriraju da se većina vinarija, u promatranom petogodišnjem
razdoblju, nalazi u teškoj situaciji u svom poslovanju što se tiče likvidnosti, zaduženosti i
rizika od stečaja. Prema ukupnoj prosječnoj vrijednosti, 47 poslovnih subjekata od ukupno
95 poslovalo je s dobitkom.
Altman A-Z score kao pokazatelj rizika od stečaja primijenjen je za rangiranje vinarija
prema stupnju rizika. Prema standardnoj devijaciji Altmanov A-Z-score rangirano je 95
vinarija u Hrvatskoj. Rezultati su pokazali veliki broj visoko rizičnih vinarija koje su imale
prosječnu srednju vrijednost score-a manju od 1,23, a kojima prijeti vrlo veliki, 95%-tni
rizik od stečaja. Od ukupno 95 analiziranih vinarija, 75 poslovnih subjekta visoko su
rizične vinarije. Rezultati jednostavne linearne regresije pokazali su da je najrizičnija
varijabla materijalni trošak koji utječe na ukupan prihod. Osim materijalnih troškova i
troškovi osoblja imaju utjecaj na ukupan prihod. Rezultati modela strateškog upravljanja
rizikom odnosno strategije modernizacije i rasta kroz nova ulaganja rezultirali su
povećanjem stope rasta, Altman A-Z score-a, neto i bruto dobiti, dobiti prije kamata i
poreza, povrata na imovinu, povrata na kapital za 7%, 23,74%, 59%, 41,35%, 36,06% i
22,56%. Istraživanjem je potvrđeno da su vinarije u Hrvatskoj izložene riziku i da primjena
strateškog upravljanja rizikom doprinosi rastu i profitabilnosti vinarija. |
Sažetak (engleski) | Viticulture and Enology as part of agriculture of the Republic of Croatia encompasses
tradition, hard work, sacrifice, persistence and hope of vine and wine growers, uniqueness
of terroir and vine varieties, and potential of wine placement through tourism. By EU
accession, Croatian wine makers have entered the market of half a billion consumers.
These are consumers of high purchasing power and, to a large extent, experts in the
culture of consuming wine. However, there are threats that emerge from the inner
weaknesses of the wineries, in the management, organization and financing of this threat
from the environment, first of all competition. Therefore, one of the necessary
preconditions of business success is strategic thinking and risk management. All of this
has led us to research business subjects in the wine industry, the risks faced by
winemakers, and the strategies they apply to successfully manage their business.
The objectives of the research were to analyze the risk in the winery business, to rank
wineries according to the degree of risk and to give recommendations to risk management
instruments and to identify the effectiveness of strategic risk management using
stochastic simulations. The systematic risk management scenarios are developed in the
model example.
The paper deals with methods of risk analysis, strategic management, questionnaire
testing, regression, correlation and financial analysis and stochastic simulations. The
research material consists of a primary survey (SWOT analysis of the state of the winery
sector in the Republic of Croatia and a survey on risk management perceptions in
Croatian wineries "Strategic Risk Management of Wineries in Croatia") and secondary
data sources.
The risk management has been in the focus of research for many years and there are
numerous risk management papers that observe it from different aspects, such as
sources of risk and their impact on business, business decision making, risk management
strategies, and farmers' preferences to risk. In the segment of strategic management, the
authors deal specifically with the issue of competitiveness and the strategies of vertical
integration of companies.
Every business is exposed to risks. Agricultural production is additionally burdened with
the risks of natural disasters, disease and pests and environmental pollution. This survey
evaluated the state of the sector and the conditions of the winery business, analyzed the
risks faced by winemakers and the risk management they apply. Based on the existing
state of affairs and the calculation of key business indicators, a model was proposed with
improvements for risk management. The results of the research have shown that the
environment in which wineries operate in Croatia is very uncertain. On the other hand,
providing quality and timely information to decision makers in executive and business
entities can have a positive impact on the state of the vineyard sector in the Republic of
Croatia.
Wineries in Croatia today act as part of the global market. The available data show a trend
of decreasing vineyards (-3.04% in 2015/2005) and wine production (-1.29% in
2015/2005) in a world that has not bypassed wineries in Croatia. In 2015, compared to
2005, vineyards in Croatia decreased by -13.76%, grape production by -14.80% and wine
production by -20.51%.
In the period from 2005 to 2015, wineries in the Republic of Croatia were exposed to
significant temptations in their business: from climatic conditions, "poor" vine harvest
(2015), the impact of the economic crisis (2008 to 2017), high prices (in 2009 the interest
rate on loans in HRK without a currency clause of 9.69%), growth of average costs of raw
materials consumption by unit of measure of all energy sources in the production of
beverages (27.31% on average), changes in wine prices and the procedure of trade wine,
the accession of the Republic of Croatia to the European Union and import of wine.
The importance of tourism in product placement (mean value 4.20), top position (mean
value 4.12) and environmental conditions in grape and wine production (average 4.00) are
evidenced by the experts in viticulture and winemaking. For sector weaknesses, surface
saturation, wine growers' lack of organization and lack of marketing (mean value 4.20) are
highlighted. New technologies (mean 2.00) and all forms of tourism (agrotourism, wine
tourism, tourism demand) (mean 2.04) represent the potential for wineries in Croatia,
affected by the “black market” risk and the lack of inspection (average 2.16) and
competition (wines of the same quality, but lower prices) (mean value 2.20).
In identifying risks and strategies for wineries in Croatia, respondents perceive the
relatively moderate risks they face. As risk consequences, 39.47% of respondents believe
that natural disasters can have significant consequences for the company's business,
44.74% of respondents believe that biology and the environment can have significant
consequences, 47.37% of respondents believe the market can have a moderate impact,
50.00% of respondents believe that management and processes have a moderate impact,
while for political influence (52.63%), they consider it to have significant business
implications. Respondents consider it important to apply strategies for managing the risks
“on farm” (such as adhering to technology and agrotechnical deadlines, sales through
multiple channels, ...) and “off farm” (such as the use of support programs) and risk
transfer strategies (insurance, ...). Respondents apply “off farm” strategies such as
national and EU programs, production diversification and apply “on farm” strategies for
managing the risks such as adhering to technology and agrotechnical terms, using their
own land, selling products through multiple channels, continuous learning and information,
human resources, procurement systems and logistics. Risk transfer strategies (insurance,
sales contracts, contract with subcontractors, production for a known customer) are rarely
applied in surveyed wineries in Croatia. Such thinking is expected, given the price of
applying certain strategies (insurance prices, investments required in technology,
education, ...).
The financial analysis of the winery business showed that from 2011 to 2015 the number
of business entities increased by 20% (from 172 in 2011 to 207 business entities in 2015),
but 95 business entities had available data in the observed period. According to the size
of business entities, the largest number of entities is small entities (91), and by type of
ownership, 76 business entities were privately owned. The results of the analysis have
shown that small businesses are more liquid, less dependent in comparison to large or
medium-sized businesses. In medium-sized enterprises, low profitability was noticed
(return on assets ranged from -0.24 in 2011 to -0.15 in 2015, return on equity ranges from
0.15 in 2011 to 0.01 in 2015), and large and small companies are facing a very high risk of
bankruptcy. According to legal form, joint stock companies have the lowest average
values of current liquidity coefficients, rapid liquidity, financial stability, highest
indebtedness coefficient and the lowest return on equity. The joint stock companies had a
mean value of Altman A-Z score of -1.99, while agricultural cooperatives had a mean
value of A-Z score of 2.07. According to Altman's A-Z-score, business entities are facing a
very high risk, 95% risk of bankruptcy (an average of less than 1.23). According to the
characteristics of business entities, the risk of bankruptcy is very high in 43 companies
registered as a limited liability company, in 59 small enterprises, in 54 private ownership
companies, in 56 companies with 100% domestic capital, in 26 enterprises with less than
10 employees and 38 companies in the area of coastal Croatia. One business entity,
which is registered as limited company, belongs to small enterprises, which is privately
owned since its inception, with a 100% share of domestic capital, excluding employees
and from the coastal part of Republic of Croatia, was not involved in the processing.
The results of multiple regression models on the winery analysis (n = 95) of total revenue
(dependent variables) and number of employees, material costs, staff costs (independent
variables) showed that dummy variables "county" and "domestic capital" are not
statistically significant. Variables “legal status” and “winery size” are statistically significant
in the model. The regression of total revenue (dependent variable) and one independent
variable and one dummy variable has shown that the “business status” and “size” are
statistically significant variables. Dummy variables “counties” and “domestic capital” have
not shown statistically significant. The results of simple linear regression have shown that
material costs (standardized coefficient 0.94) have the greatest relative impact on total
revenue.
According to the standard deviation, Altman's A-Z-score ranked 95 wineries in Croatia.
For the period from 2011 to 2015, there were 8 business entities facing a very low risk of
bankruptcy, 10 medium-risk wineries and 75 high-risk wineries, which confirms the
difference between wineries in terms of the degree of financial risk. Two business entities
are not involved in the processing.
The simulation of the model “Vinarija” has applied risk management strategies, a costcutting
flexibility strategy that stabilizes the cost of wine-making, a market expansion
strategy that assumes increased sales, i.e. greater capacity utilization, a sales stability
strategy that is based on the assumption that the influence of the price of wine or its
stabilization on the winery is coming the more favorable financial position and the strategy
of modernization and growth through new investments starts from the assumption of new
wage borrowing. The model is a stochastic simulation model created in @Risk software
(Excel supplement) with Monte Carlo simulation and 5000 iterations. Stochastic input
parameters are the sales price of wine, the cost of wine production (cost price) and winery
capacity (% capacity utilization). The results of the model or strategy of modernization and
growth through new investments resulted in an increase in the growth rate, Altman A-Z
score, net and gross profit, profit before interest and tax, return on assets, return on equity
by 7%, 23.74%, 59 %, 41.35%, 36.06%, and 22.56%.
The research has confirmed that wineries in Croatia are exposed to risk and that the
application of strategic risk management contributes to the growth and profitability of
wineries. |