| Sažetak | U doktorskom radu analizira se konvergencija dohotka regija CEE zemalja na NUTS 2 razini u odnosu na prosječni dohodak regija EU. Zapravo, cilj je utvrditi kakva je povezanost sredstava iz EU fondova i institucionalnog okvira s konvergencijom BDP-a po stanovniku u 2019. godini. Budući da su regije međusobno povezane, i prisutna su prelijevanja učinaka među regijama spomenuto se kvantificira primjenom prostorne ekonometrije. Eksternalije se utvrđuju kroz direktan, indirektan i ukupan efekt. Pokazano je da za EU fondove ne postoji negativna povezanost sa smanjenjem regionalnih dispariteta u CEE zemljama EU, štoviše čak je prisutna pozitivna veza s regionalnim razlikama. Spomenuto se manifestira kroz direktan efekt, pri čemu izostaje uloga indirektnog efekta regija iz okruženja. Dobiveni rezultat može biti posljedica moralnog hazarda, efekta supstitucije i NEG-je. Napredak institucija između 2017. i 2010., te razina institucija iz 2010. su negativno povezani sa smanjenjem regionalnih razlika. Uloga eksternalija iz okruženja pokazala se bitnom za razinu institucija iz 2010., čak važnija od direktnog učinka koji se realizira unutar pojedine regije. Za institucionalne razlike prisutan je samo direktan efekt, koji pokazuje manju negativnu povezanost s regionalnom konvergencijom u odnosu na razinu institucija iz 2010. Spomenuto može označavati institucionalni pad nakon krize iz 2008. Proizlazi da uz investicije u infrastrukturu, ljudski kapital i inovacije kao tradicionalne faktore rasta pažnju treba usmjeriti prema razvoju kvalitetnog institucionalnog okvira koji predstavlja skup pravila da bi se spomenute investicije ostvarile u cilju smanjivanja međuregionalnih razlika. Znači, institucije predstavljaju poticaj za rast, pri čemu se institucionalne preferencije manifestiraju u obliku vlasničkih prava, vladavine prava, kroz suzbijanje korupcije i prevelikog državnđog aparata, i sl. Također, institucionalni okvir može poslužiti kao kriterij prilikom dodjele sredstava iz EU fondova, s ciljem da se postigne konvergencijski učinak EU fondova. Zaključno, jedinstvenog rješenja za institucionalni napredak nema, presudna je uloga stanovnika i nosioca ekonomske politike. |
| Sažetak (engleski) | The doctoral thesis analyzes the CEE EU members at the NUTS 2 regional level. The observed period is from 2008. to 2019. It examines the connection between EU funds and the institutional framework with regional income convergence, which observes income differences in relation to the average EU regional income.
Since the regions are interconnected, and there are spillover effects between the regions, the aforementioned is quantified using spatial econometrics. Externalities are determined through direct, indirect and total effect. The direct effect observes how a change in a variable manifests itself in the region where the change occurred. There is a feedback effect, which is the result of a change in the region that is transmitted to the neighborhood, and returns to the starting region. The indirect effect contributes the most to the regional interaction, it observes how the change of the variable in the regions in the environment manifests itself in the region where the change did not occur. And finally, the total effect that represents the sum of the two previous effects, that is, it is determined which effect prevails.
The result indicates a positive association of EU funds with the reduction of regional differences, whereby the above is manifested through a direct effect, while the feedback effect is negligible. The indirect effect, i.e. externalities from the environment, is not statistically significant. The lack of negative association of EU funds with regional convergence may be a consequence of moral hazard, substitution effect and NEG.
The institutional level from 2010., and the differences between institutions in 2017. and 2010., represent the institutional framework of the regions of CEE countries. The institutional level from 2010. measures the institutional contribution from the communist legacy and the period of accession to the EU. Institutional differences are a measure of institutional progress after the crisis of 2008. The negative relationship between the institutional framework and the reduction of regional differences was shown. The institutional level has a stronger association than institutional differences for which only a direct effect is present. Although both effects are negatively related to regional differences, the indirect effect of the institutional level is stronger than the direct effect. For the direct effect, it is a consequence of the institutions within the regions, and the indirect effect is influenced by the regional environment. A comparison of the direct effect for both institutional variables and the absence of an indirect effect for institutional progress indicates the weakening of institutions after the 2008 crisis.
Economic policy makers have a difficult task because they must avoid short to medium term superficial changes that are only a mask for real institutional reforms, which ultimately leads to a lack of institutional spillover and an increase in regional lag behind the EU core. It is necessary to take into account the historical, geographical and cultural conditions that influenced the development of CEE countries in order to achieve territorial homogeneity. So, it is not enough to just formulate what institutional changes should look like, but the emphasis is on long term and sustainable implementation.
It follows that in addition to investments in infrastructure, human capital and innovation as traditional factors of growth, attention should be directed towards the development of a quality institutional framework that represents a set of rules in order to realize the aforementioned investments in order to reduce interregional differences. This means that institutions represent an incentive for growth and convergence, whereby institutional preferences are manifested in the form of property rights, the rule of law, through the suppression of corruption and excessive state apparatus, etc. Also, the institutional framework can serve as a criterion when allocating EU funds, with the aim of achieving the convergence effect of EU funds. In conclusion, there is no single solution for institutional progress, the role of residents and economic policy bearers is crucial. |
