The main goal of this paper was to compare the results of the European Union in achieving progress in the implementation of the energy transition in relation to the last two adopted climate and energy strategic goals from 2018 and 2022, both for 2030 and 2050, based on model forecasts using exponential smoothing method. Additionally, the existence of long-term and short-term connections between the energy intensity variable and selected determinants of the energy transition, which includes real GDP, CO2 emissions, total consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, net import of fossil energy and the price of natural gas, forming three smaller models that influence the implementation of the energy transition in the European Union. Furthermore, at the end of the paper, the impact of uncertainty was analyzed by modeling the variance at the time of the energy crisis in 2022 in order to assess what effect it will have on the dynamics of the energy transition. Descriptive statistical analysis related to the presentation of basic statistical indicators of variables, correlation analysis and graphic models with the expected trend and time series models including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model, innovation analysis and GARCH models were chosen as the appropriate methodology. The most important results of the analysis indicate that the total consumption of non-renewable energy sources and CO2 emissions had the strongest effect on energy intensity, respectively energy efficiency, and the weakest total consumption of renewable sources and the price of natural gas, where the dynamics of the energy transition was slow. In addition, the greatest uncertainty occurred during the Covid-19 crisis, when the sudden drop in the price of Brent-Europe crude oil occurred, which also meant that its impact also contributed to the slowing down of the dynamics of the energy transition.