| Sažetak | U dinamičnom tržišnom okruženju analiza poslovnih modela banaka služi kako bi se dobila jasna razlika između osnovnih karakteristika svakoga od njih. Metodologija za definiranje različitih poslovnih modela jest tzv. klaster analiza koja uzima u obzir glavne bankovne karakteristike prema njihovoj bilančnoj strukturi imovine i obveza (engl. asset-liability). Prema različitim istraživanjima razlikuje se pet poslovnih modela banaka: usmjerene maloprodajne, diverzificirane maloprodajne vrsta 1 i 2, veleprodajne i investicijske. Poslovni modeli banaka analiziraju se prema izabranim pokazateljima uspješnosti (povrat na aktivu, povrat na dionički kapital, te omjer troškova i prihoda), pokazateljima rizika (Z-omjer, udio neneplativih kredita i CDS spread), te prema regulatornim pokazateljima (imovima prilagođena riziku, Tier 1 kapitalni omjer, neto stabilni omjer finaciranja, kapaciteta apsorpcije gubitaka). Analiza prema prethodno spomenutim pokazateljima obuhvaćena je u vremenima predkriznog i kriznog razdoblja, te razdoblja ekonomske krize unutar Eurozone (od 2005. do 2013. godine), te postkriznog razdoblja (od 2014. do 2017. godine). Isto tako opisan je i likvidonosni rizik koji se smatra jednim od glavnih uzročnika posljednje financijske krize. Regulacija je kako kroz povijest tako i u posljednje vrijeme utjecala na oblikovanje poslovanja banaka pa su stoga prikazani neki od najvažnijih bivših i aktualnih zakona, standarda i pravila poput Glass-Steagalovog zakona i Regulacije Q, Dodd-Frankov zakon i Volckerova pravila, Liikanen izvješće i Vickerova komisija, te Basela III. Promatrajući posebno migracije, bankovni poslovni modeli su stabilni. Međutim zabilježen je prelazak sa veleprodajnih i investiticjskih na diverzificirane maloprodajne modele. Isto tako okruženje poput izuzetno niskih i negativnih kamatnih stopa potiče banke na dodatno preuzimanje rizika. Europska središnja banka radi redovite procjene rizika sa kojima se banke u Eurozoni susreću a za koju se koriste drugačije definirani poslovni modeli od inicijalno spomenutih. Najvažniji rezultati procjene rizika prikazani su u Jedinstvenom nadzornom mehanizmu u sklopu kojega su najrizičnije ocjenjeni diverzificirani zajmodavci u 2018. i 2019. godini. Banke se suočavaju sa sve višim razinama moderene teholologije te digitalnim poslovanjem stoga bi trebale razmisliti o svojim novim strategijama i poslovnim modelima, te svojoj bržoj prilagoditi u svoje poslovanje. |
| Sažetak (engleski) | In a dynamic market environment, the analysis of banks' business models serves to obtain a clearer distinction between the basic characteristics of each. The methodology for defining different business models is the so-called cluster analysis that takes into account the main banking characteristics according to their balance sheet structure of assets and liabilities (asset-liability). According to various studies, there are five business models of banks: focussed retail, diversified retail types 1 and 2, wholesale and investment. Banks' business models are analyzed according to selected performance indicators (return on assets, return on share capital, and cost / income ratio), risk indicators (Z-ratio, share of non-performing loans, CDS spread and loss-absorption capacity), and according to regulatory indicators (risk-adjusted assets, Tire 1 capital ratio, net stable funding ratio). Analysis according to the previously mentioned indicators included in the pre-crisis and crisis periods, and the period of economic crisis within the Eurozone (from 2005 to 2013), and the post-crisis period (from 2014 to 2017). Liquidity risk, which is considered one of the main culprits of the last financial crisis, is also described. Throughout history and in recent times, regulation has influenced the shaping of banks' operations, so some of the most important former and current laws, standards and rules such as Glass-Steagal's law and Regulation Q, Dodd-Frank's law and Volcker's rule, Liikanen report and Vicker commission and Basel III. are explained. Looking at migration in particular, banking business models are quite stable. However, there has been a shift from wholesale and investment to diversified retail models. Likewise, an environment such as extremely low and negative interest rates encourages banks to take additional risks. The European Central Bank conducts regular assessments of the risks faced by banks in the Eurozone, using different business models than those initially mentioned. The most important results of the risk assessment are presented in the Single Supervisory Mechanism, within which the most risky assessed diversified lenders in 2018 and 2019. Banks are facing ever higher levels of modern technology and digital business, so they should consider their new strategies and business models, and adapt their faster to their business. |
