The final specialist paper researches the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The main goal of the research is to detect the intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine over a period of 15 months (from December 2020 to February 2022) and what were accordingly activities of the foreign (and security) policy of the Russian Federation. The intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine was determined through a quantitative analysis by studying 383 Daily Reports of the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for European Security and Cooperation, from which the number of violations of the Minsk Agreement was read, and the long-term trend of the intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine was calculated. After that, the foreign (and security) policy of the Russian Federation towards the conflict in eastern Ukraine was researched using a qualitative method, focusing on the period from December 2020 to February 2022. The research proved that three waves of increasing conflict intensity in eastern Ukraine in April and November 2021 and February 2022 (independent variable), caused an increased level of Russian foreign policy (and security) activities (dependent variable). The final specialist paper concludes that the increased intensity of the conflict in the eastern Ukraine in February 2022 (the third increase in 10 months) represents the outbreak of the Special Military Operation (according to the Russian narrative) or an invasion of Ukraine (according to the Western narrative) and it is very difficult to argue that Operation/invasion was unprovoked.